He who conquers the fear - Navalny’s arrest and the crack in the frozen democracy

On January 17th, 2021, political activist and blogger Alexey Navalny was arrested soon after his arrival at the Moscow international airport of Sheremetevo. His original intention was to land in Vnukovo international airport. However, the police rerouted the plane in order to avoid clashes with a conspicuous group of his supporters gathered there awaiting his arrival. Among his supporters, 53 people were arrested that day as well. According to Russian authorities, the popular political figure was arrested for breaching the required double monthly signature obligation associated with his parole for alleged fiscal crimes. The breach in question occurred while Navalny was in Germany recovering from a poisoning attempt, thus rendering him unable to fulfill his legal duties.  

Knowing that arrest was imminent and the fate that awaited him, it is astounding that Navalny decided to return to Russia. Navalny is the most notable political opponent of the country’s current regime, with a vast number of online followers. His YouTube channel, where he releases documentaries denouncing the transversal corruption of Russian society, counts more than 4 million subscribers and boasts an even greater viewership. According to Levada Center, the past decade has seen his popularity in the polls rise from 6 to 55%, and the general citizens’ approval of his actions rising from 6 to 20%. Both numbers might sound ludicrous from a Western perspective but are quite unprecedented for an outsider challenging an establishment that can count on a real voters’ support of around 60 to 70%. 

Navalny is particularly popular among the younger generations that were born soon after the start of, or during Putin’s rule. This may explain the consistency with which Navalny utilizes social media platforms to denounce malpractice and to materially organize protests. In fact, he has been behind all the major protests that occurred in  Russia over the last decade, the first of which was held in Moscow in 2011. Attended by an estimated fifty thousand people, the gathering to protest ballot rigging in 2011 was the biggest the nation had witnessed since the fall of the Soviet Union. In 2017 Navalny led a corruption investigation on then-Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, the results of which lead again to mass protests throughout the country’s major cities. Notably, these were the first regular protests to ever be held in the country and resulted in his arrest. 

Following Navalny’s arrest, the European Court of Human Rights issued a ruling in 2018 that lay blame on Moscow for repetitive violations of his moral and material rights. His role in catalyzing the political opposition is attracting increasing support from various grass-roots movements. Russia has seen the rise of several civic movements, including during the Soviet era, particularly those fighting environmental battles. At the same time, these movements steered away from getting political to avoid incurring the heavy legislation restricting freedom of protest in the country. 

Navalny has slowly been changing this traditional separation by gathering an ever-growing number of supporters from different backgrounds and asking them to demonstrate together on the 23rd of January. Therefore it is not surprising that his arrest and seemingly unlawful prosecution have mobilized people all over the country (including remote areas of Siberia where -50 degrees didn’t stop demonstrations), with over 3500 demonstrators being arrested at the time this article is being written. In a country where people are prohibited from using the internet to criticize authorities, in an act of defiance Navalny uses social media to organize protests and speak out against issues close to the people, such as the economic stagnation or the detriment of civil rights. His return to Russia has sparked the curiosity of many analysts, generating a treasure hunt to find the motive. Most analysts believe he wants to capitalize on the international attention created by his failed poisoning. Others note that it was never in his intention to live in exile, as he declared that “the question to return or not never stood before me, mainly because I never left. I ended up in Germany, having arrived in an intensive care box [...]”. 

The new wave of protests in the country comes at a turning point in international politics, marked by the beginning of the Biden Administration in the United States of America.  Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo condemned the arrest of Navalny, as did President Biden through his National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Starting off on the wrong foot with the new overseas administration might potentially be destructive in the long run for the Kremlin, whose leaders keep counting on a general international indifference to keep their agendas on track. Having thousands of people relentlessly demonstrating throughout the country is colliding with this wish. Traditional ways of dealing with protests, such as mass arrests, harsh repression, and taking the side of the demonstrators in order to build a state-owned civil society, might not work this time as many believe the entire Navalny affair has seen the Kremlin shooting at its own feet. What is true is that democracy and civil society in Russia are far from consolidated or fully functioning. The protest on January 23rd of 2021, which started out in support of the opposition leader, swiftly embraced traditional issues of the civil rights movement, namely the impatience towards Putin’s eternal mandate, the repression of political freedom, and the blatant disrespect and disregard of human rights.

Although it is likely that Navalny will be sentenced to prison for at least 3 years, it is also likely that his courage and the collective determination of the people protesting everywhere in the country, will generate a wave of demonstrations whose tide will be so strong that it has the potential to resurrect a dying society. The process might take decades, but once started, it will be unstoppable. As Mandela said: “a winner is a believer who never gives up”.